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![My son and his wife are visiting Germany for vacation.]()
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2025-09-18 00:20:43
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My son and his wife ar..
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![Tropical Update:
1. 90% chance we have Gabrielle shortly.
2. Our line of cold fronts will eventually curve it North. Odds are it will be sooner than later keeping the storm East of the islands and the US mainland. (Probably Bermuda too)
3. Next is the area in yellow. Too soon to get a feel on where it goes...but most models also curve it.
4. Gfs and Euro both still showing sketchy development in the Caribbean or Gulf. Not a particularly strong signal, but its been persistent. The CAG (Central American Gyre) often spawns low pressure this time of the year. That's the area we'll be watching through October.
5. The stretch of time we've seen without a named storm has been unusually long. 1939 was the last time we've gone so long in September without a named storm. That streak ends shortly.
6. But the good news, there's very little out there that looks like a threat for at least the next week...probably longer.
7. FYI, 100 days until Christmas.]()
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2025-09-16 17:37:21
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Tropical Update:
1. 90% ..
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![Congrats to all the National Merit Scholarship Semifinalists announced the past few days nationwide! 29 in Pinellas County including 9 at Palm Harbor University High School. Not gonna lie, got a special place in my heart for the guy in the middle of the list. Congrats Jake! Now, where you going to college??? Suggestions anyone? 🥳]()
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2025-09-16 00:57:03
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Congrats to all the Na..
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![Tropical Update:
1. Red Blob now deemed an]()
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2025-09-15 20:53:54
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Tropical Update:
1. R..
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![Tropical Update:
1. Up to 70%.
2. Once again, if it develops, it will be named Gabrielle. (Seems like we've heard that name before)
3. Honestly, similar thinking as previous system as well. If it stays weak, it would go West and probably fizzle out. A stronger system goes North and curves away from the US.
4. I just don't see this as a threat right now. All these fronts we're seeing not only give us our nice cool am's, but they help to deflect tropical systems if they were to approach the coast. As you see, the models overwhelmingly forecast a turn. So do I.
5. A few ensemble runs continue to show development in the Western Caribbean down the road. This is something we'll be watching right through October. Just check in from time to time. Nothing to worry about. It happens most every Fall.
6. Speaking of Fall, how you enjoying our little cooldown in the mornings?]()
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2025-09-14 17:54:39
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Tropical Update:
1. Up t..
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![😪]()
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2025-09-09 10:35:14
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😪
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![Weak low pressure spinning offshore. Waves of rain move onshore for the next couple of days.]()
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2025-09-08 23:53:23
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Weak low pressure spinnin..
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![Overnight Tropical Update:
1. Spaghetti models continue to show a track that would impact the islands over the next 7-10 days. Thing is, there might not be much left. Most runs have a very weak system moving through.
2. There is still an outside chance it survives this track and has an opportunity to strengthen. So, we'll keep an eye on it just in case. It's what we do this time of the year.
3. Either way, nothing to stress about.
Disney ✔️
Flights ✔️
Cruises Not sure yet. 🤢
Exotic Pet Walking ✔️
Hurricane Snacks ✔️]()
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2025-09-06 12:35:46
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Overni..
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![Quick Tropical Update:
1. Still at 90%.
2. No changes to thinking from yesterday and overnight.
3. Models still undecided on track and intensity. No clear center of circulation to pin a track on. Dry air also vexing Gabby (to be). Most ensembles either curve or fizzle.
4. Time frame? 6 or 7 days from the islands. 12(ish) days from any possible impacts on the US mainland IF it ever makes it that far. That's a big IF.
5. My advice? Buy hurricane snacks. Eat hurricane snacks. Repeat.]()
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2025-09-05 17:39:37
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Quick Tropical Update:
1..
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![Tropical Thoughts]()
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2025-09-05 07:39:08
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Tropical Thoughts
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![]()
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2025-09-04 20:49:47
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"Stalking Turtle" retu..
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![Actually didn't kill the mascot this time! 😂 Thanks Phinley! threshersbaseball]()
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2025-09-04 08:15:24
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Actually didn't kill t..
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![Thanks again to the threshersbaseball for their hospitality tonight. I didn't even nearly kill Phinley with the 1st pitch! Winning night all around! 😂]()
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2025-09-04 07:43:19
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Thanks again to the th..
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![Thanks SO much to the threshersbaseball for being so AWESOME. A moment our daughter Ryan, and our family will never forget. ❤️]()
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2025-09-04 06:50:02
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Thanks SO much to the..
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![Wednesday Tropical Update:
1. No changes to red blob or thinking. Still a 70% chance of development per the larest NHC update. If it stays weak, it will go more West before beginning a curve. If this were to happen, island impacts are possible. If it gets stronger sooner, it curves before ever threatening the islands. However, Ill say it again, if our string of East coast fronts continue, this will curve away from the US. Ensembles below show the same. A bit too early to know for sure. Just check in from time to time.
2. Nothing else worrisome out there. Models still hint things start to pick up around the 20th in the Caribbean. That's an area we'll need to keep an eye on. Rule #7.
3. My 11 year old daughter Ryan sings the national anthem tonight at the Threshers game. Big night for her. ❤️ I'll be back on Tampa Bay 28 news after the game.]()
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2025-09-03 18:17:45
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Wednesday Tropical Up..
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![Tropical Update September 2nd]()
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2025-09-03 06:18:26
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Tropical Update September..
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![Tuesday Evening Tropical Update:
1. The ONLY game in town is what will likely be Gabrielle. Let's talk about it.
2. Yes, it's probably going to develop. It's a similar set up to Erin. Stronger storm goes North. Weaker goes West. There has been an unusual amount of East coast fronts of late. There's another one forecast early next week. If it's there, it turns...end of story. If it weakens, storm could sneak by. Look at the ensembles. Nearly ALL of them curve. Is that a guarantee? Of course not. But I'd rather see this than a blocking ridge...that's for sure. Stay tuned.
3. Buzz, talk, chatter about area in the Caribbean/Pacific of late. Models have been showing it for 10 days. It's not a thing. Here are the latest ensembles. Majority show bupkis. However, look at the CPC week 2 outlook. This is the pattern change we've been discussing for nearly a month. For those who think the season is over, I hope you're right. Unfortunately, you're not. With a La Nina setting in, the Caribbean and Gulf are very warm and far from done with tropical systems.
4. But for now, we have NO immediate threats. There is time to restock your hurricane treats. You can book flights and Disney trips with no issues. Cruises could get bumpy next week in Eastern Caribbean. And yes, no limitations on pet armadillo walks. We good...for now. As always, it's 1 day at a time. We got this.]()
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2025-09-03 04:04:37
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Tuesday Evening Tropical ..
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![Tropical Update:
1. No changes to my thinking. Watching several things, worrying about none of them.
2. Area in yellow will either develop and stay East of the US or weaken and fizzle. Yet again, persistent East coast fronts keeping development WAY East of us.
3. Same stalled front could easily see weak low area develop along it. Either Eastern Gulf or Western Atlantic. Either way, rainmaker...nothing more. No biggie.
4. Nothing else on radar through 2nd week of September.
5. La Nina brewing. Caribbean will start popping late September and all of October.
6. Rule #7.]()
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2025-09-01 04:51:52
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Tropical Update:
1. No c..
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![Tropical Update:
1. Erin continues to accelerate AWAY from the US. Still seeing gusty winds, high surf and some surge along the NC coast.
2. What's next? Odds are in our favor we see a little break for the next week. Yes, there is a red hatched area. Yes, it could become Fernand. No, it won't impact the US. Bermuda will need to keep an eye out though.
3. After that? Blob in Orange. The Euro has FIFTY ONE ensemble models. Exactly ONE develops this system and brings it to Florida. So I'm saying there's a chance? Sure. At this point, that chance is extremely low. GFSicane model brings a few more possibilities farther West and eventually into Texas.
4. Bottom line? We're gonna get a break for quite a few days (and maybe more than a week) from tropical threats. Disney, flight, and pet walking questions are still encouraged though!
5. Rule #7. I'll still be updating tropical maps as always..since it's kinda my job. And many of us count down to the]()
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2025-08-21 17:18:21
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Tropical Update:
1. Erin..
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![Overnight thoughts on Erin:
1. Shear is weakening the storm a bit. Still Cat 3, but certainly not going to get any stronger short term..
2. Important for folks on the Outer Banks. We went through Helene. Storm was over 100 miles offshore and we still had surge. Erin will also be 150(ish) miles offshore, but has a huge wind field. Winds of 40-50 along the NC coast is certainly possible. Not terrible. My concern is surge. Not massive like Helene, but certainly 2-4 feet in the Eastern most spots. They've seen much higher, but not a walk in the park.
3. Erin will never make landfall. These impacts are from a storm well offshore.
4. Florida? High surf. Nothing more.
5. Tracking a couple things behind Erin. The GFS does its obligatory GFSicane, but otherwise nothing too noteworthy. Nothing at ALL to stress about here. Check in from time to time. It's my job to inform and forecast these storms. That's what our team does. 24/7. We're here if you need us. Rule #7.]()
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2025-08-19 10:44:15
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Overnight thoughts on Eri..
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![11AM Hurricane Erin Update: Erin is now stronger with winds of 140 mph. Additional strengthening is likely.
1. As of the 11am update, hurricane force winds extend 80 miles out from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles.
2. Landfall is not expected although heavy rain is occurring through parts of Hispaniola from the outer rain bands. The track will keep all hurricane winds, and the strongest tropical storm force winds offshore.
3. No threat for landfall to the US. There will be coastal flooding, heavy surf and possibly even some gusty winds along the Outer Banks of NC. Erin will stay several hundred miles offshore. Cruises and shipping lanes will obviously be impacted. Erin is now such a large storm in terms of size, it will push a lot of water. So no threat of landfall, or hurricane conditions along the US East coast, but there will be impacts from water.
4. Still tracking what's behind Erin as well. Our team will be on it 24/7...as always.]()
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2025-08-18 21:02:37
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11AM Hurricane Erin Updat..
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![ERIN | The 11 am update is in. Winds and pressure holding steady. Storm is on a solid WNW track and a turn more to the NW is likely over the next couple of days. Fluctuations in intensity will continue with Erin forecast to regain Cat 4 intensity over the next day or so. A tropical storm warning is up for the Turks and Caicos and a tropical storm watch is up for the southeast Bahamas.]()
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2025-08-17 21:22:19
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ERIN | The 11 am update i..
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![Tropical Weather 101.
LOTS of folks are asking about the ERC. (Eyewall replacement cycle) Erin went through. When a hurricane gets really strong, the eyewall (Strongest winds around the calm quiet]()
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2025-08-17 21:12:40
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Tropical Weather 101.
LO..
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![REALLY quick tropical update. Heavy rains across BVI and Puerto Rico. However, by FAR, worst stays well to the North of the islands. The islands definitely dodged a bullet with this one. #erin]()
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2025-08-17 05:32:34
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REALLY quick tropical upd..
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![Cat 5 Hurricane Erin. Pretty insane how in 30 hours we've gone from 75 mph to 160 mph. Very small storms can strengthen (and weaken) faster than larger ones, but this is extraordinary. Fortunately, the track is following the forecast and won't impact the US.]()
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2025-08-16 23:35:58
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Cat 5 Hurricane Erin. Pre..
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